'It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data.'
Holmes, in A Scandal in Bohemia. He wasn't just making a philosophical point. He had a protocol for it.
When the information wasn't there, Holmes didn't convene a discussion. He played violin. He went to concerts. He took cocaine. Maybe we won’t dwell on the cocaine - different times. The point was deliberate disengagement. Not laziness. Not avoidance. A principled refusal to let his mind start building theories on foundations that didn't exist yet.
In business, we often do the opposite.
When information is thin, we schedule a meeting. We discuss. We analyse what we have, despite it being insufficient. We reach positions that feel considered because of the time invested in reaching them, rather than the information underpinning them. We are tempted to act on these positions, tell ourselves we don’t need more information, or carry them forward — less curious, more committed, less open-minded — into the moment when the real information finally arrives.
It looks like diligence. It feels like progress. It’s ‘better than nothing’.
But Holmes's protocol wasn't idleness. It was the rational response to a specific risk — that reasoning, applying experience or knowledge, in the absence of data, does more damage than doing nothing at all.
Holmes’ response was to gather data. If it isn’t available, make it available. In A Scandal in Bohemia, Holmes engineers the situation such that the information he needs is revealed to him. Then he acts.
What does your business do when it doesn't have the information it needs? Is it a business that is curious, that values information, that invests in having the clues at its fingertips?
The full quote reads 'It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.'
And we have all done it.
